It’s the final day of the festival, but what a day it promises to be! 3 bets.

Firstly to the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle that opens the card. It looks an open renewal but one that may have an edge here is the Gordon Elliott trained Shadow Catcher.

This son of Haafhd was a decent flat performer for Michael Dods before joining current connections. He made a very impressive debut at Punchestown, beating Willie Mullins’ Darroun far more comfortably than the 1/2 length margin suggests. He stamped himself as a real classy sort that day, and although his hurdling wasn’t perfect he looked to be a real star in the making. He followed that with a good 2nd in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown behind Hisaabat on ground that was softer than ideal. He certainly could have won that day, but he hit the front too early and met the last hurdle on a poor stride. He did run on well from the back of the last, displaying his battling qualities.
Much has been made of the English trained ones in this race but I can’t have them. They have all been beating each other and that leads me to conclude they are either all very good or all average performers, I’m swaying towards the latter. Grumetti, Saddlers Risk, Baby Mix and Pearl Swan all go into that bracket, Balder Success the pick of the home team for me.
However Shadow Catcher looks the one they’ll have to beat. You shouldn’t give too much credence to winning times of 4 y/o hurdles but that Grade 1 at Leopardstown on soft ground was run in a quicker time than any of the English trials and I just think that people are under-estimating how good a couple of these could be. Darroun and Hisaabat are both decent sorts and will certainly win many races between them, in fact I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the Irish had the first 2 home. Shadow Catcher has a high cruising speed and travels amazingly well, the better ground at Cheltenham is sure to see him to better effect. He will turn in with Paul Carberry swinging off the bridle and I hope that he can deliver his mount at the right time to score.

1.5* e/w Shadow Catcher, 1.30 Cheltenham, currently 10/1.

Next to the highlight of the day, the Gold Cup. Long Run will be bidding to retain his title, while a win for Kauto Star would bring the house down. I’m looking outside of the front two in the market and have sided with Quel Esprit as an each way proposition.

Kauto Star is one of the greatest horses of our lifetime but he is now 12 years old and my feeling is that the Gold Cup test is once again beyond him. He is a great lay at 7/2. I would love to see him reach the frame but I just can’t have him. He has had a fantastic season culminating in his 5th King George and I feel that this is a step too far for the old boy. Long Run was a good winner of the race last year but you have to ask yourself whether he can do the same this year, at 2/1 he looks under-priced and I’ll be swerving him also. As a 7 y/o French bred he is in the prime of his career and he probably should have won the King George, but last year’s Gold Cup was a weak heat and retaining his title is a tough task.
On the face of it, it looks a weak division, Midnight Chase, Knockara Beau, The Giant Bolster, China Rock, Carruthers, The Midnight Club these are all very good horses in their own right but they are not Gold Cup standard. Then you have Burton Port, Weird Al, Time For Rupert, Synchronised, What A Friend, Diamond Harry and Quel Esprit. I can see the winner coming from that select group. Second season chasers have a great record in the race and I just think that Quel Esprit shouldn’t be a 20/1 chance. He certainly had his jumping issues in his first season over fences, in fact he fell in all but one of his outings last season. He came down 3 out when still going well in the RSA last season but Willie Mullins has worked wonders to get his confidence back and he has been foot perfect this season. He won the Grade 1 Hennessy at Leopardstown last month in workman like fashion but you can only beat what’s put in front of you. On official ratings he looks to be completely up against it, but I would argue that he could well be unbeaten over fences had he completed all his starts and we would be looking at a very different proposition here. One cannot understate how his jumping has been foot perfect this season compared to last, he looks to have matured this term and he seems to be more confident in his own ability. I don’t have too much of an issue with the 3m2f trip, I can only hope that he handles it and I believe he will. We could be in for a ‘shock’ result today and Quel Esprit rates as a viable alternative to the main protagonists. Paul Townend takes the ride and once he gets the 8 y/o gelding into a good rhythm anything is possible.

2* e/w Quel Esprit, 3.20 Cheltenham, currently 20/1.

Finally to the Grand Annual, a Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m that brings the curtain down on the 2012 festival. This race often goes to an unexposed sort and one that makes his handicap debut off a mark of 143 is the Paul Nicholls trained Toubab.

A well above average hurdler he has been sent chasing this season and looks a very exciting prospect. He ran over C&D in October on his chasing debut when he finished 2nd to Lancetto. He was fierce unlucky to lose that day, stretching clear 3 out before clouting the last and idling on the run in, headed in the final strides. He looked all over the winner next time at Haydock before coming to grief 3 out but he confirmed his level of ability when routing the field last time out in a novice chase over 2m at Sandown. He is lightly raced over fences, and looks to be on a very fair opening handicap mark. He has course experience and represents the Nicholls/Walsh team. At 8/1 he looks like one of the best each way bets of the festival.
He will face competition from a maximum of 20 rivals, Kid Cassidy and Idarah the pick of those, but realistically I feel that it is Toubab’s to lose. If he puts in a fluent round of jumping then he is the one they all have to beat and I can’t understand how he isn’t half his current market price. I would not be surprised to see this fellow punted off the boards today and he will hopefully prove a very popular winner for followers.

2.5* e/w Toubab, 5.15 Cheltenham, currently 8/1.

A great day 2 with the lay of the festival Sizing Europe, going down to Finian’s Rainbow in a thrilling, if not controversial, Champion Chase.

4 bets for Day 3

We’ll start with the Jewson, a 2m4f Novice Chase. I had quite fancied Peddlers Cross for the Arkle and I was disappointed to see him divert to this race. However Donald McCain wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t 100% and he is a standout bet in this company.

Peddlers Cross needs no introduction, a winner of the ’10 Neptune and 2nd in last seasons Champion hurdle he has always been a top class sort. His chasing career was much anticipated and he didn’t disappoint on his first couple of outings, jumping brilliantly and beating his inferior rivals out of site. His unbeaten record over fences came to an end at Kempton at the hands of Sprinter Sacre. He made a bad mistake at the first that day and a problem later transpired as to why he was beaten so easily. There is no shame in losing to a super-star like Sprinter Sacre and he was not himself that day.
Since then his preparation has been sketchy, reports from the McCain yard that he wasn’t sparkling before reports that he was, before more reports that he wasn’t! There are lots of rumours doing the rounds over a wind issue which he may/may not have, but as punters we have to take it on trust that he would not be lining up if he wasn’t 100% right.
Sir Des Champs will put it up to him, no doubt. He is unbeaten in the UK and Ire over hurdles and fences and he swerved the RSA for this ‘easier’ task. Cristal Bonus will have his supporters but I don’t think he is as good as the main protagonists while I feel For Non Stop is certainly underpriced at 8/1.
Peddlers Cross is proven to be a wonderful racehorse, yet he still has the potential to go right to the top of the chasing ranks. To do that he will need to win this Grade 2 event, and I will be backing him to do so.

3* Peddlers Cross, 1.30 Cheltenham, currently 7/2.

Next to the Pretemps Final, a handicap hurdle over 3m. This is as competitive as expected with many holding strong claims, however preference is for the Willie Mullins trained, Sergeant Guib’s.

He has had two runs in Ireland since arriving as an expensive purchase from France. He was well supported before his debut at Punchestown where he ran a little flat, finishing 3rd. He filled the same placing back at that track stepped up to 3m last time. However he ran a lot better than his placing suggests. He traveled ominously well for a long way that day before going down by 3 lengths. That was on heavy ground and I feel he will certainly appreciate the better underfoot conditions at Prestbury.
There are many with chances here as ever, the likes of Across the Bay, Palace Jester and Pineau De Re all capable of running big races at fancy prices. Cape Tribulation is another on my radar and he rates a serious danger to the selection.
However Sergeant Guib’s is still completely unexposed off a mark of 143 and interestingly Ruby Walsh has decided to take this mount ahead of the Paul Nicholls trained Sonofvic. He has been lightly campaigned and representing the Mullins yard he is sure to run the best race of his season here. The current 10/1 is a nice price and he warrants an e/w bet.

1.5* e/w Sergeant Guib’s 2.05 Cheltenham, currently 10/1.

Next to the feature of Day 3 the Grade 1 World Hurdle. Prior to the festival I wrote a trio of pieces on why the ‘bankers’ are vulnerable in the championship races this term and we have already seen two of them lose their crown, today it may well be three. If you haven’t already read that article, you can find it here. http://theturfanalyst.com/?p=2112

I really do believe that Oscar Whisky is the best horse Big Buck’s has faced for many moons and at the age of 9 his spectacular tenure may be coming to an end. The Henderson yard is absolutely flying and they can land another big prize here.

3* Oscar Whisky, 3.20 Cheltenham, currently 9/2.

Finally to the Byrne Group Plate. A Grade 3 handicap chase over 2m5f. One that looks massively overpriced here at 50/1 is the Sue Smith trained Gansey.

A decent hurdler by all accounts he has made a stuttering start to his chasing career. He already has a handicap chase victory to his name, that win coming off a mark of 129 over 2m4f at Newcastle last season, but he is much better than he has shown of late. He was 12th in this race last season of a 2lbs higher mark before disappointing in the Topham Chase at Aintree and the Scottish National at Ayr at the back end of last season. He returned this season with a very encouraging 3rd in a decent handicap over 2m4f at Aintree under Ruby Walsh, before the lights went out very quickly at Haydock when he seemed to be tanking along. He was sent to post 9/4 fav for that class 2 handicap and I am sure that there was a reason behind his disappointing finish that day, all didn’t seem right. He was given a nice break after that outing before returning at Newcastle last month with a perfect prep run. He jumped like a stag that day before race fitness caught up with him on heavy ground. That was a positive effort and he comes here a little under-estimated.
Again, as usual, there are many in these handicaps with strong claims and he will need some luck in running to be involved. The likes of Salut Flo and Niceonefrankie are big dangers and Kilcrea Asla is one I fancy to run much better than his 66/1 odds suggest.
However Gansey looks a smashing bet to me. His shrewd handler is one of the best in the business at getting her horses jumping and she is not a stranger to festival shocks, winning with Mr McGoldrick at 66/1 a couple of years ago. Peter Buchanan is in the saddle and he may well be prominent throughout, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did prove extremely well handicapped and he may not be a ‘shock’ winner for followers!

2* e/w Gansey, 4.00 Cheltenham, currently 50/1.